Monday, May 19, 2014

Why the precipitous drop in law school applications and attendance?

The unemployment rate for lawyers nine months after graduation was 11.2% in 2013, up from 9.2% in 2011. Boston College Law School applications dropped 40% in five years, and Boston University’s were down 50%. Enrollment at the top 200 law school is down 24% from 2010. This is a lot even taking into account lawyer unemployment. (Boston Globe, May 4, G5)

At what age do we acquire wisdom?

On page 5 of the Weekend FT one finds the obituary of Stephen Sutton (1994-2014) who achieved fame in the UK by dying gracefully and publically at age 19. His Facebook and Twitter campaign raised £2.6 mn. (For what? The article does not say.) He is quoted as telling a group of wealth managers: "I do not know how long I've got left to live, but one of the reasons for that is because I haven't asked. That's because I don't see the point of measuring life in terms of time any more. I would rather measure it in terms of what I've actually achieved." Michel de Montaigne wrote something similar at a fairly young age, in his thirties: “Wherever your life ends, it is all there. The advantage of living is not measured by length, but by use; some men have lived long, and lived little; attend to it while you are in it. It lies in your will, not in the number of years, for you to have lived enough.”

Is it fair to say there is a management problem at the VA?

According to the Weekend FT, p14, The Veterans Administration has 8.57 million vets enrolled, a budget that has grown from $73 bn in 2006 to $154 bn in 2014, and visits have doubled since 2000. Twenty-four patients died in Phoenix after being on a waiting list for up to a year. Doctors there shredded papers to obscure the facts. What’s going on at other VA facilities?

What’s the difference between a bond and a bond trader?

(Answer: “The bond eventually matures.”) This old joke came to mind when I read in the FT that Deutsche Bank doesn't want traders to use bad or indiscrete language. Colin Fen, co-head of investment banking wrote to employees that "some of you are falling way short of our established standards [sic]." . . . "Let's be clear; our reputation is everything. Being boastful, indiscrete and vulgar is not o.k. It will have serious consequences for your career. And I have lost patience on this issue."

Is the US more anticompetitive than France?

France economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, prompted by opposition to the acquisition of Alstom’s power business by GE, has issued a decree requiring state approval for most foreign acquisitions. (One can expect that approval will not be given in this case.) In response to criticism that such a restriction is anticompetitive, Montebourg pointed out that his decree is no broader than the rights of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US. (This inter-agency committee was established in 1988 to prevent Japanese acquisitions of US companies if “there is credible evidence that leads the President to believe that the foreign interest exercising control might take action that threatens to impair the national security.” It frequently blocks transactions.)

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Where will the extra crude come from in the second half of the year?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the world will need another 900,000 bpd in the second half, on top of the 400,000 bpd OPEC increase in April, but the IEA doesn't know where it will come from given production problems in Nigeria, Angola, Libya, South Sudan, Columbia and Kazakhstan.  Global crude inventories are below normal. (FT, Friday, p15)

Should we fear the 2nd of June?

President Putin has written a letter to each of the 19 European countries to whom Russia sells gas telling them he will cut off gas to Ukraine on June 2nd unless Ukraine begins prepaying.  Ukraine is currently paying nothing for gas and owes Gazprom $3.5 bn.  In the letter Russia says that it is willing to negotiate terms but has received no proposal from Ukraine.  For Russia to supply Europe while cutting off Ukraine, Ukraine would have to allow transit of the gas.    (FT, Friday, p4)