Thursday, February 12, 2015
Currency Wars: Sweden cuts rates. 17th central bank to cut this year.
"Sweden Adopts Negative Rate, Launches QE. Sweden’s central bank cut its main interest rate into negative territory for the first time and announced a bond-buying program, joining a widening group of central banks trying out unconventional measures to battle low inflation. The Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, lowered its benchmark rate to minus 0.1% from zero and said it would buy government bonds worth 10 billion Swedish kronor ($1.2 billion)" (WSJ)
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Honduras Central Bank Cuts rates: I think that it's the 16th central bank to do so in 2015. (and the year is only 6 weeks old)
Meanwhile, in Istanbul:
"(Bloomberg) -- Global finance chiefs dismissed speculation the world is sliding toward a 1930s-style round of currency devaluations, indicating their acceptance of the dollar’s recent surge and declines in the euro and the yen. As talks of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 got under way in Istanbul, U.S. and European officials said recent exchange-rate fluctuations mirrored trends in economies rather than outright efforts to secure a competitive advantage to boost growth."
Honduras central bank to cut interest rate to 6.75 pct
TEGUCIGALPA Sat Feb 7, 2015 1:04pm EST
Feb 7 (Reuters) - The central bank of Honduras will lower its benchmark interest rate on Monday to 6.75 percent, the first cut in nearly three years, in a move aimed at accelerating economic growth, the bank's president said on Saturday.
The 25 basis point rate cut will be the first since May 2012, and comes at a time when monthly inflation fell for the first time since late 2008.
"This decision is largely due to both internal and external conditions that encourage us to allow a gradual reduction of the benchmark interest rate so that the country's economy is reactivated," said Marlon Tabora, the central bank's president.
The economy of the Central American country grew by 3.1 percent last year, and is expected to expand between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in 2015.
The central bank said January inflation fell 0.39 percent due mostly to falling fuel prices, the first drop in average prices since November 2008 when inflation fell by 0.2 percent.
The bank added that it expects the government's fiscal deficit to fall by 3.4 percent in 2015.
Last year, the deficit reached 4.9 percent of gross domestic product. (Reporting by Gustavo Palencia; Writing by David Alire Garcia; Editing by Alexander Smith)
"(Bloomberg) -- Global finance chiefs dismissed speculation the world is sliding toward a 1930s-style round of currency devaluations, indicating their acceptance of the dollar’s recent surge and declines in the euro and the yen. As talks of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 got under way in Istanbul, U.S. and European officials said recent exchange-rate fluctuations mirrored trends in economies rather than outright efforts to secure a competitive advantage to boost growth."
Honduras central bank to cut interest rate to 6.75 pct
TEGUCIGALPA Sat Feb 7, 2015 1:04pm EST
Feb 7 (Reuters) - The central bank of Honduras will lower its benchmark interest rate on Monday to 6.75 percent, the first cut in nearly three years, in a move aimed at accelerating economic growth, the bank's president said on Saturday.
The 25 basis point rate cut will be the first since May 2012, and comes at a time when monthly inflation fell for the first time since late 2008.
"This decision is largely due to both internal and external conditions that encourage us to allow a gradual reduction of the benchmark interest rate so that the country's economy is reactivated," said Marlon Tabora, the central bank's president.
The economy of the Central American country grew by 3.1 percent last year, and is expected to expand between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in 2015.
The central bank said January inflation fell 0.39 percent due mostly to falling fuel prices, the first drop in average prices since November 2008 when inflation fell by 0.2 percent.
The bank added that it expects the government's fiscal deficit to fall by 3.4 percent in 2015.
Last year, the deficit reached 4.9 percent of gross domestic product. (Reporting by Gustavo Palencia; Writing by David Alire Garcia; Editing by Alexander Smith)
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
Is Europe's economy perking up? The PMI's today were better than expected
EUROPE: January services purchasing managers’ indexes
–EUROZONE was 52.7 against 52.2 forecast and from 51.6 in December.
–FRANCE was 49.4 agaisnt 49.5 forecast and from 50.6 in December.
–GERMANY was 54.0 against 52.7 forecast and from 52.1 in December.
–ITALY was 51.2 against 50.0 forecast and from 49.4 in December.
–SPAIN was 56.7 from 54.3 in December.
–U.K. was 57.2 against 56.5 forecast and from 55.8 in December.
–EUROZONE was 52.7 against 52.2 forecast and from 51.6 in December.
–FRANCE was 49.4 agaisnt 49.5 forecast and from 50.6 in December.
–GERMANY was 54.0 against 52.7 forecast and from 52.1 in December.
–ITALY was 51.2 against 50.0 forecast and from 49.4 in December.
–SPAIN was 56.7 from 54.3 in December.
–U.K. was 57.2 against 56.5 forecast and from 55.8 in December.
Friday, January 30, 2015
Sovereigns are in a peck of trouble
Euromoney's sovereign risk index is rising. This is surprising because easy money usually reduces sovereign risk. Special factors also come into play, like commodity prices and politics (e.g. Ukraine and Venezuela.)
The strong dollar is the unmentioned culprit in this analysis as many of these countries have US$ debt coming due.
By the way, the Russian Central Bank has just cut interest rates, bringing to 14 the number of CB who have eased policy in January. Would it be better to describe this as an avalanche or a tidal wave?
The strong dollar is the unmentioned culprit in this analysis as many of these countries have US$ debt coming due.
By the way, the Russian Central Bank has just cut interest rates, bringing to 14 the number of CB who have eased policy in January. Would it be better to describe this as an avalanche or a tidal wave?
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Ronald McDonald says US$ overvalued against all major currencies
In July 2014, the US$ was still fairly valued against the GBP, the euro, the Aus$, and the Can$. Now, however the US$ is overvalued in relation to every signficant economy in the world save Brazil.
It is no surprise CAT reported bad earnings today. The currency effect produced revenue declines everywhere in the world outside of North America. We should expect the same in the future from other global companies.
Monday, January 26, 2015
US economy "totally different" from the others
Chinese official explains why they won't follow the US lead in monetary policy. (The US had apparently been suffering from "insufficient money supply.")
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