Encouraging decline in gun-related deaths in the USA

among suiciders, according to yesterday's Wall Street Journal.

Although the suicide rate among both men and women in the USA is rising rapidly, it is good news that fewer suicides are using guns. (for men from 61.7% in 1999 down to 55.4% in 2014) The big increase in method has been in "suffocation," which I take to mean hanging. (Assuming that the number of serial killer assisted suicides using pillows is not significant)

Should restrictions be placed on the sale of ropes?

The article states: "The report showed a surge in suicides among middle-age men and women, a factor noted in rising death rates among middle-aged people and a decline in white Americans life expectancy in 2014." The writer searches for an explanation but cannot come up with one. (Is Global Warming the cause?)

(Click on the graph to see the full article in the Wall Street Journal.)

Driving Lessons from Greece: The consequences of central bank policy

Central bank policy has evolved from unorthodox to downright strange as politicians have failed to take control of the post-crisis economy. Sooner rather later they will confront a stark choice signposted Greece or Ireland.

Full article: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3543283/Inside-investment-Driving-lessons-from-Greece.html?printrequest=true&copyrightInfo=true

How investors are playing climate change

From this morning's Boston Globe:

Stairway to heaven: time for another step up?

There's a lady who's sure
All that glitters is gold
And she's buying a stairway to heaven

-- Led Zeppelin

Middle aged white women are killing themselves.

Middle aged white women are killing themselves.

And they are not alone.

There was a fascinating article, “A great divide in American death,” about the decline in life expectancy of rural white women in today’s Washington Post. It can be found at this site:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/04/10/a-new-divide-in-american-death/

Here is one of many fascinating graphs (click on graph to see it more clearly):

There is more and more drinking, smoking, drug-taking and depression in rural America, and it’s not working out very well.

Caveat emptor: The Wall Street Journal tosses out some interesting numbers, some of which are wrong.

I was recently embarrassed by quoting some statistics from the Wall Street Journal that were completely wrong. (I'm not saying which ones.) The WSJ people seem to be doing this more often than in the past. Perhaps there are fewer experienced editors and perhaps reporters are more rushed than they used to be.

In today's WSJ, an article ("Budget Cuts Fuel Monetary Policy Clashes," p. A2.) discusses how declining government revenues combined with rising transfer payments are turning the Federal budget into transfer payments only. Here is the graph:

The article states "Consumption and investment by all governments -- local, state and federal combined -- dropped to 17.6% of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2015, matching its lowest level in 66 years, according to the Commerce Department." The fact is that the 17.6% number is for the federal government alone. But it's worse than that. The 17.6% figure is the approximate number for 2014 federal government tax receipts. Federal outlays in that year were 20.4% of GDP. So the graph relates federal tax receipts (not expenditures) to transfer payments. (The point that transfer payments are devouring the federal budget is correct, nonetheless, but the problem is not the level of expenditure as the article suggests.)

Moreover, state and local government spending isn't much less than federal spending, so total government expenditures are in the 35%-40% of GDP range, which is not abnormal.

The White House website has the following table of federal receipts and spending which I presume to be accurate;




The reporter graduated from college in 2001 and has been an economics reporter for three years, first for the Economist and then for the WSJ, so he should be a bit more aware of basic facts. Even more, his editor should.

"All power to the Soviets!" Central bank overreach in Sweden and elsewhere

I remembered Lenin's phrase "All power to the Soviets!" when I read this morning that Stefan Ingves, head of Sweden's central bank, thinks that the bank should have more power over the economy. Specifically, the Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA) is standing in the way of the central bank's direct regulation of the housing market. Ingves proposes that the FSA be merged into the central bank. (i.e. eliminated and its authority given to the CB)

Sweden's economy grew 4.5% last year and is expected to grow 3.5% this year. The central bank lending rate is -0.5%. (I believe that Sweden was the first to go negative.) The bank has also done the requisite quantitative easing. The fly in the ointment is that inflation is only 0.4% whilst the target is 2.0%.

Personally, I don't see why stable prices and a booming economy is not considered a good enough result. The Central bank, which seems quite pleased with itself, says, however, that it needs more power so that things will be even better.

It's human nature: everyone thinks he ought to have more power.