Gold mining company wave of consolidation?

The Financial Times suggests yes today, p. 18. http://digital.olivesoftware.com/OLIVE/ODE/FTUS/Default.aspx?href=FIT%2F2012%2F04%2F30&pageno=18&entity=Ar01803&view=entity

A Sunday Thought

Sometimes we learn surprising things about people long after their deaths. In 2009, The Times first published the following lines by TS Eliot:, who passed away in 1965. "Of all the beasts that God allows/ In England's green and pleasant land/ I most of all dislike the cows:/ Their ways I do not understand." How many of us, like Eliot, go through life without resolving such inner torments, and how better our lives would be if we did! It's worth thinking about.

The fracturing of shale formations holds the promise of almost free energy for the entire world. This may well (no pun intended) be the most important economic development of the next fifty years. Here are some implications: 1. Accelerating economic growth 2. Shrinking of the oil and gas industry (revenues shrink, like with mainframe industry thirty years ago) obsolescence of utility companies. (power generated at home level; more efficient) 3. No more coal 4. No alternative energy industry 5. Disruptive politics as industries and interests negatively affected engage in a bitter but futile resistance. 6. Middle East becomes unimportant and Canadians focus more on maple syrup production. In short, the future lies before us.

The center cannot hold. . .

In a way we are lucky that Obama was elected in 2008. His leftish (sort of) approach hasn't proved to be a panacea, so we has received a homeopathic inoculation that will protect us to a degree from radical solutions, whether or not the president is reelected. The cynicism of the American public is such that untoward enthusiasms are unlikely. This is not the case in Europe, where it is the conservative approach that has been called into question by a public anxious for rapid solutions to long-term demographic and structural problems, whether the formula comes from the the left or right. I just finished reading the Economist's special section on Cuba. They have achieved a sort of stability under Castro where a lack or economic growth combines with good social statistics. Castro is the Lee Kwan Yew of poverty, but the social outcomes have been similar, putting aside the relatively fewer numbers of automobiles and ipads in Cuba compared to Singapore. The business models of Europe and the US are broken and need to be changed. I suppose that this means that Europe moves to the left for a solution and the US will probably move to the right, at least for now.

NATO war crimes

One of the Qaddafi sons, age 29, and three grandchildren, all under 12, were killed today in a NATO air strike that was clearly targeting a civilian residence. This is a war crime under the Geneva Convention.

US deficit 10.8% of GDP: Highest in the world

You may not have seen the IMF report released yesterday that noted that the US will have a budget deficit of 10.8% this year, the largest of any advanced country. Also interesting, the report stated that debt/GDP of the advanced economies will exceed 100% this year for the first time since WWII and will continue to rise through 2016 at which time debt/gdp will be 107%, 38 percentage points above the level that existed at the beginning of the debt crisis. Japan and the US have the greatest refinancing risk, at 56% and 29% of GDP respectively in 2011.

An historian looking at these numbers one hundred year hence would probably see them as the obvious precursors of hyperinflation and default. He may also find it curious that some major countries exposed themselves to so much refinancing risk for such a small reduction in interest cost.

Student debt exceeds credit card debt!

According to today's NYT, student debt topped credit card debt for the first time last year and will reach $1 trillion this year.