Housing bubbles proliferate, except for the US and southern Europe

Neil Irwin of the Washington Post has blogged the following report on Nouriel Roubini's recent warning on where the excess liquidity is producing bubbles:

"Roubini doesn't see bubbles in the places where they were most severe in the pre-2008 period. He doesn't mention the United States or Spain or Ireland. Rather, Roubini sees housing prices getting out of whack in quite a few small and mid-sized nations that are well-governed and managed to avoid the worst economic effects of the financial crisis: Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the London metropolitan area in the U.K. He adds some key emerging markets that show the same dynamic: Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Israel, and major urban centers in Turkey, Indonesia, India and Brazil.

"In this view of the world, a better question might be where in the world is there NOT a housing bubble (the answers, apparently, are the United States, southern Europe, Russia and all of Africa).

"Roubini's argument boils down to this: The major economies have been growing only slowly. Yet with low interest rates and aggressive central bank action across the globe, there is a giant pool of money that has to go somewhere. That somewhere has not been productive new investments, like companies building new factories. Rather, it has come in the form of people taking advantage of cheap credit to bid up the price of existing real estate in cities from Stockholm to Sydney."

Nepheloccoccygia

The weather woman introduced this word, which is new to me, this morning at the end of the weather forecast. She said that one accepted meaning of nephelococcygia is the tendency of people to see familiar objects in the shape of clouds. Googling the word, I found that the original meaning was Cloudcuckooland, the name of the mythical avian city in Aristophanes' The Birds, an imaginary, implausible utopian parody of 5th century B.C. Athens.

Turning this over in my head as I waited for my sister to get ready for me to drive her to the bus station for her return, post Thanksgiving, to Hartford, I came up with a third and new definition: "Nephelococcygia: the tendency to imagine that only good things can result from easy monetary policy." Looking up into the clouds, we discern a land of free money that never loses its value, bringing prosperity and happiness to all. It is a sort of paradise, albeit, I am afraid, only that of a fool.

Driving back from the bus station, NPR reported, since this is the first day of the month, that many people believe that saying "rabbit, rabbit" the first thing upon awakening on the first day of each month brings good luck. (This is also a new one to me.) Franklin D. Roosevelt was reported to have practiced this spiritual exercise throughout his presidency.

So I shall say "rabbit, rabbit" every time I hear or see Bernanke or Yellen on the news. It can't hurt.

Argentinian problem solving

House prices: "It looks like we are off and running again."

So says Robert Shiller.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reports that September house prices were up 8.5% YOY.  Housing permits were up at a 6.2% annual rate in October, due mainly to apartment building plans, to 1.03 million units, a 5-year high.  Maybe the Fed's QE and ZIRP sparks have finally ignited the dry brush.

"It's just plain sad."

What every American born will need.

Thanks to Global Investors for this interesting drawing

Signs of global economic recovery proliferate

It looks like the world economy is accelerating, except, of course, in the US where health care uncertainties are delaying hiring and investment.  AP Moller-Maersk, which accounts for 15% of global sea freight, has just raised its 2013 profit forecast.  It says global sea freight will increase 2-3% this year and 4-6% in 2014 and 2015.  Meanwhile, the Bank of England says that unemployment is falling faster than expected.