The city versus the countryside in Turkey

Riots in Europe’s largest city: Police in Istanbul (40,000 of them) blocked labor union May Day marchers from approaching the city center. Police used tear gas and water cannons. The same occurred in several other Turkish cities. Freedom House in Washington has downgraded Turkish media from “partly free” to “not free.”

Like in Thailand, this is a struggle between the majority in the pious countryside, who support the government, and the libertine city dwellers, who do not. The second law of thermodynamics suggests that the libertines will ultimately win.

Can't China take the pressure?

The World Bank’s “International Comparison Program” has recalculated purchasing power parity in such a way as to increase China’s GDP so that it will be the world’s largest economy by the end of this year. China has opposed this recalculation and “does not endorse the results as official statistics.” China fought for a year to prevent the release of this “data.”

China does not want to assume a global leadership position and does not feel itself ready to in any case. The same was true of the US in 1872 when it became the world’s largest economy.
Can’t China take the pressure?

The Chinese yuan progress rapidly to reserve status

The Chinese yuan progresses rapidly to the status of a reserve currency. Today it is the 7^th most used currency in the world, up from 13^th in 2012.  18% of China’s trade is now settled in Yuan, but this is expect to rise to 30% next year. 

The major barrier to reserve currency status is currency controls.  When will China enact full convertibility?  That would be the end of the US dollar’s quasi-exclusive reserve status. 

Will democracy come to Thailand: The Yellow Shirts say, "No!."

Tensions rise in Thailand:  Rural people (red shirts) support the ruling Pheu Thai party, which has won five successive elections.  The urban elites have never accepted this and their Democrat Party (yellow shirts) are pushing for a judicial or violent overthrow of the red shirts.  Meanwhile, the red shirts are forming militias in the countryside.

Food prices are rising, as is discontent. Is civil war a possibility?  Yet another military coup?  The red shirt militias are a new element.  In the past, the military would simply ask the King for permission to stage a coup and no one would oppose them.

Dought may presage social unrest and political problems in Brazil.

The average man can only live for three days without water:  Sao Paulo State’s 10 million people are running out of water due to a drought of biblical proportions, the worst since records began in 1930.  Reservoirs are at 12% of capacity.  (64% is normal for this time of year.)  Water will fall below reservoir intake pipes by mid-June, during the World Cup. The causes: drought; rising population; lack of investment.

Physical danger produces social unrest, and in extreme cases revolution. Political instability can be expected.

Are lower gasoline prices in the offing?

US crude inventories are now 399.4 million barrels. This is the highest inventory level since records began in 1982.  Refinery utilization is also high at 92.9%.

It appears the European automobile depression is over.

Car sales in Britain are expected to rise 10% in 2014, continuing the strong trend of recent years, according to a Renault executive.  Sales in Europe have turned positive and are up in March for the 7^th consecutive month, due to increased demand in Germany, Italy, and Spain.