Sunday, May 4, 2014

The lost girls of northern Nigeria are unfound. The problem is unrealizable aspirations.

The 276 teenage girls kidnapped in Moslem northern Nigeria are still missing.

The problem is the 4 wife standard. Nature has provided that half of births are men and half are women.  So if men try to change the1:1 rule to a 4:1 rule, then it is inevitable there be, (1.) periodic mass abductions of wife material, and/or (2.) large reductions in the potential husband stock.  Both things appear to be happening in northern Nigeria.

MERS shows up in the US: An epidemic is unlikely, however.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has afflicted some 400 people in Saudi Arabia, of whom 100 have died.  The first US case has just been confirmed in a man who recently returned from Saudi Arabia.

The good news:  MERS is not very contagious.
The bad news:  There is no cure. 

China's rapid advance to economic dominance presages social change in the West

British writer Martin Jacques (When China Rules the World, 2009) predicts that by 2030 China will be 1/3 of global output, greater than the US and Europe combined. 

Economic dominance leads to cultural dominance:  Jacques’ TED talk is worth hearing.  Chinese culture’s most esteemed virtue is social harmony and unity.  The West seeks justice at the cost of harmony.  Let us hope we become more harmonious. Will our officials let their fingernails grow? 

Portugal's exit from support program highlights success of austerity program

Portugal is escaping from the claw-like grip of the IMF/ECB/EEC support program.  Its current account and primary budget are in surplus.

Deputy Prime Minister Paulo Portas commented that Portugal now regains the sovereignty that it had surrendered to creditors.  On the other, we may observe that had this sovereignty not been surrendered, the success would not have been achieved.

Europe is tasting the sweet fruits of austerity as manufacturing rises

The Eurozone has just achieved its highest manufacturing PMI in 6 years: 53.4.  The countries above 50 (expansion) include Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria and Greece.  Unemployment remains high at 11.8%, but below last year’s record of 12%.

ECB forecast of 1.2% GDP growth for 2014 looks very achievable.  It is notable that Greece, Italy, Spain and Ireland are all experiencing manufacturing expansion.  Are the fruits of austerity finally turning sweet?

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Housing bubbles in the UK but cools in China

Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe of the Bank of England says the UK housing boom is “dangerous,” and that “this is a movie we’ve seen before.” Gov. Mark Carney added that the housing market could heat up at “warp speed.” (Is he a trekkie?) Meanwhile, housing prices in China’s 100 largest cities were up 9.06% y/y, while sales were down 15.5%


Maybe the Chinese housing bubble is already deflating the places we need to worry about are the UK, Canada and Australia?

Kwacha in the sights of forex traders?

Malawi’s central bank has decided to keep lending rates at 25%.

Good yield.  Should we be looking at the kwacha?