Will regulatory changes finally unleash the velocity of money?

The banks have been saying that they are restricted in lending due to capital constraints due to two rules that the regulators have imposed since the crisis:

1. Banks must retain some of the risk for mortgages they sell that have less than 20% equity behind them.
2. The banks must take back mortgages they sell that go bad due to "their mistakes."

These innovations meant that even loans sold into the market effectively remained on the balance sheet and thus required capital. Since capital requirements are higher than they ever have been, lending has been fairly static despite Fed stimulus.

This is part of why easy money has not resulted in more lending.

Now this has changed. The regulators have done away with both rules. (See the NYT article: http://nyti.ms/1yZEtup )

Will this result in an acceleration in lending? It should. But how much? Maybe Bernanke should apply again.

This graph shows how anemic mortgage lending has been:

Erin go brag!

Business

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Ireland’s GDP now forecast to increase by 5pc – Bank of Ireland Quarterly Economic Outlook

23.10.2014

Ireland’s GDP now forecast to increase by 5pc – Bank of Ireland Quarterly Economic Outlook

For 2015, growth of 4.2pc is projected, up from 3.4pc previously and reflecting in part the changed fiscal stance with Budget 2015 providing for a €1bn stimulus, as opposed to the originally envisaged consolidation of €2bn.
The latest Bank of Ireland Quarterly Economic Outlook for the Irish economy has forecast a strengthening of the recovery, with GDP growth revised upwards for this year to 5pc from 2.8pc in its July outlook.

“News on the economic front has been positive through 2014, with headline measures of activity for the first and second quarters, and high frequency data for the third, confirming that the economy is strengthening,” said Loretta O’Sullivan, group chief economist, Bank of Ireland.

“The data also show that the recovery has broadened out, with domestic demand now contributing to growth along with exports. This was expected and is in line with the recovery path that Ireland has been following for some time.  

Sows to farrow more piglets

The FT's "Big Read" this morning is about commodity prices. It notes that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at its lowest point in five years. That's low, and surprising given easy money.

The IMF estimates that the $20 drop in oil prices will increase world growth by 0.5%-1,2%.

Corn prices are down well over 50% in the past year. The FT notes that "hog farmers intend to allow more sows to farrow piglets," which is a shocking result to vegetarians.

Maybe now is, at last, the economic takeoff. What do you think?

No wonder US consumers are in a grouchy mood: no recovery in incomes yet

We may have fallen back to 1996 levels, which felt good at the time, but how will we feel at 1886 levels?

Do FT headline writers read the articles?

On page 2 of the FT today one sees "Russia to curb defence spending." The article says the new budget proposes a 32% increase in defense spending in 2015 followed by a 5.3% decline from that level in 2016, which would still be 25% higher than today. (Russia is aiming to bring 70% of its armaments up to date by 2020.) The article also points out that while Russia had a budget surplus last year, it may have a slight deficit this year.

We can be pleased by how much better we in the west are doing.

Remember this date: IMF says China now the world's biggest economy

"I am PIIGS; hear me oink!"

There is a surprising degree of optimism in the sty these days. Ireland is doing great. Greece is expecting growth this year and next (0.6% and 2.5%), and the Spanish market is near the US PE with Spain's banks trading at premium valuations to US banks. What is the secret of their success? I suppose it must be austerity.