Wednesday, April 13, 2011

US deficit 10.8% of GDP: Highest in the world

You may not have seen the IMF report released yesterday that noted that the US will have a budget deficit of 10.8% this year, the largest of any advanced country. Also interesting, the report stated that debt/GDP of the advanced economies will exceed 100% this year for the first time since WWII and will continue to rise through 2016 at which time debt/gdp will be 107%, 38 percentage points above the level that existed at the beginning of the debt crisis. Japan and the US have the greatest refinancing risk, at 56% and 29% of GDP respectively in 2011.

An historian looking at these numbers one hundred year hence would probably see them as the obvious precursors of hyperinflation and default. He may also find it curious that some major countries exposed themselves to so much refinancing risk for such a small reduction in interest cost.

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