Thursday, May 17, 2012

Inflation or Deflation?

There is a great deal of concern among policy makers that we will fall into deflation. And yet, aside from houses and natural gas, I can't think of many things that have decreased in price over the past five years. Last night we had some neighbors over in an impromptu manner and I went out for a large cheese pizza at Bertucci's. It was $18 plus tax, up from $14 the last time I bought one. (several years ago) Shoe polish (i.e. Kiwi shoe wax) has doubled in price since the recession's onset, perhaps because of the surge in job applications; pencils are way up, as are gasoline and electricity, and, here in Hingham, water rates. Yesterday the Bank of England announced that its growth expectations have been reduced from 1.3% in 2012 and 2.8% in 2013 to 0.6% and 2.0% respectively, while at the same time it raised its outlook for inflation, which is now running at 3.5%. What gives? These prices are definitely more reminiscent of the Great Inflation of the 1970's than the Great Depression of the 1930's.

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