US deficit 10.8% of GDP: Highest in the world

You may not have seen the IMF report released yesterday that noted that the US will have a budget deficit of 10.8% this year, the largest of any advanced country. Also interesting, the report stated that debt/GDP of the advanced economies will exceed 100% this year for the first time since WWII and will continue to rise through 2016 at which time debt/gdp will be 107%, 38 percentage points above the level that existed at the beginning of the debt crisis. Japan and the US have the greatest refinancing risk, at 56% and 29% of GDP respectively in 2011.

An historian looking at these numbers one hundred year hence would probably see them as the obvious precursors of hyperinflation and default. He may also find it curious that some major countries exposed themselves to so much refinancing risk for such a small reduction in interest cost.

Student debt exceeds credit card debt!

According to today's NYT, student debt topped credit card debt for the first time last year and will reach $1 trillion this year.

US Budget projections: all are bad

Government Shutdown: What's at stake.

We won't know what we're missing until it's gone. (George Tooker's "Government Bureau")

Will Obama show up if the govt furloughs non-essential personnel?

One of the interesting aspects of a government shutdown is that "non-essential" personnel are furloughed and non-essential functions cease. This is not, in fact, a bad thing. To balance the budget, this is exactly what is required.

India, Brazil and Japan have had bad 1st quarter markets

Feeble recovery in the USA

From today's New York Times

"The average workweek, too, was unchanged, at 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings remained static. Such indicators point to an economy with much slack demand, hints of deflation and little upward pressure on wages. Real earnings, the Brookings Institution noted on Friday, have fallen 1.1 percent in the last year."