The Chinese yuan progress rapidly to reserve status

The Chinese yuan progresses rapidly to the status of a reserve currency. Today it is the 7^th most used currency in the world, up from 13^th in 2012.  18% of China’s trade is now settled in Yuan, but this is expect to rise to 30% next year. 

The major barrier to reserve currency status is currency controls.  When will China enact full convertibility?  That would be the end of the US dollar’s quasi-exclusive reserve status. 

Will democracy come to Thailand: The Yellow Shirts say, "No!."

Tensions rise in Thailand:  Rural people (red shirts) support the ruling Pheu Thai party, which has won five successive elections.  The urban elites have never accepted this and their Democrat Party (yellow shirts) are pushing for a judicial or violent overthrow of the red shirts.  Meanwhile, the red shirts are forming militias in the countryside.

Food prices are rising, as is discontent. Is civil war a possibility?  Yet another military coup?  The red shirt militias are a new element.  In the past, the military would simply ask the King for permission to stage a coup and no one would oppose them.

Dought may presage social unrest and political problems in Brazil.

The average man can only live for three days without water:  Sao Paulo State’s 10 million people are running out of water due to a drought of biblical proportions, the worst since records began in 1930.  Reservoirs are at 12% of capacity.  (64% is normal for this time of year.)  Water will fall below reservoir intake pipes by mid-June, during the World Cup. The causes: drought; rising population; lack of investment.

Physical danger produces social unrest, and in extreme cases revolution. Political instability can be expected.

Are lower gasoline prices in the offing?

US crude inventories are now 399.4 million barrels. This is the highest inventory level since records began in 1982.  Refinery utilization is also high at 92.9%.

It appears the European automobile depression is over.

Car sales in Britain are expected to rise 10% in 2014, continuing the strong trend of recent years, according to a Renault executive.  Sales in Europe have turned positive and are up in March for the 7^th consecutive month, due to increased demand in Germany, Italy, and Spain.

I am PIIGS! Hear me oink!

Italy’s borrowing costs have suddenly dropped to the lowest level since the inception of the euro in 1999.  Its 10-year is 3.22% and its 5-year is 1.84%.

It looks like someone threw a switch on the PIIGS.

Bad US Q1 GDP does not look like a blip

GDP rose 0.11% in the first quarter, whilst the consensus was 1.2%. Only consumer spending was up, and that was due to heating bills and Obamacare, not voluntary consumption.  Residential construction, business investment, inventories, net exports, and government spending were all negative.

This does not appear to be a weather-related blip, because weather effects were offset by heating and healthcare.  The other categories would still have been down.  It’s even worse when one looks at inflation.  The BEA used a 1.3% annual rate in Q1.  If they used the BLS’s 1.8%, GDP would have been minus 0.39%, or if the BPP’s 3.91%, it would have been minus 3.8%.