Bad US Q1 GDP does not look like a blip

GDP rose 0.11% in the first quarter, whilst the consensus was 1.2%. Only consumer spending was up, and that was due to heating bills and Obamacare, not voluntary consumption.  Residential construction, business investment, inventories, net exports, and government spending were all negative.

This does not appear to be a weather-related blip, because weather effects were offset by heating and healthcare.  The other categories would still have been down.  It’s even worse when one looks at inflation.  The BEA used a 1.3% annual rate in Q1.  If they used the BLS’s 1.8%, GDP would have been minus 0.39%, or if the BPP’s 3.91%, it would have been minus 3.8%.