Monday, May 11, 2015

Chinese oil imports are steadily trending upward. Global demand is not the source of price volatility.

We already knew that supply/demand imbalances in the oil market are caused almost entirely by supply deviating from trend. The fifteen year chart of Chinese oil imports in today's FT illustrates this. Not even the great recession seems to have made much difference.



In fact, world oil demand seems to grow 1% or 2% a year, year after year.  The only declines in world consumption in the past 25 years were in 2008 (-0.78%) and 2008 (-1.25%).  The Chinese slowdown, which is real and which heralds a new, lower growth trajectory, won't affect the oil price very much.


Supply is the source of price volatility, and supply depends on production costs (in North America) and politics (in Saudi Arabia and environs.)

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