Friday, May 16, 2014

US banks will lend less to Russia, but the Russians don’t mind.

With a balanced budget, a current account surplus, and little sovereign debt, the Russian state is relatively indifferent to banking sanctions.  According to the central bank, Russia’s total external debt (public and private) is about $700 bn, most of it long; reserves are $500 bn.  The trade surplus is running at $170 bn. Banking sanctions are the favored kind of showy gesture that the US can make without the risk of affecting anything.  As such, they serve a useful public relations function.

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