Saturday, January 30, 2016

2016 Outlook? Here is an cautionary anecdote about forecasting

From Prof. Schneider on Quora:

"Theodore Streleski spent 19 years working on his PhD at Stanford, and then beat his advisor to death with a ball-peen hammer, feeling that he had hurt his reputation and denied him scholarly support. . . 

"The irony is that the murder was in 1978, and Streleski was released in 1985, meaning he spent less time in prison for the murder than he originally spent in his PhD program. Upon his release he said 'I have no intention of killing again. On the other hand, I cannot predict the future.'"

I think that Streleski's humility is a healthy example for investors like us.

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