Sunday, January 31, 2016

Retail sales trend say no US recession in the near term

The 0.7% annual rate increase in 4th quarter GDP was quite disappointing.  It was dragged down by negative numbers for investment and net exports.  But personal consumption remained strong at +2.2%.  The chart below from Fear & Greed Trader at Seeking Alpha indicates that the recession won't come until the Fat Lady (i.e. the consumer) stops singing.


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