The Economist calculates that most of world oil production is unprofitable at $30. (The snapshot is at $40, still mostly unprofitable.) Their calculations, if correct, point to $100/barrel in the long run because that is what a lot of the production needs. I was guessing the the equilibrium price would be around $50 and I suppose I'll stick with that and point to Saudi Arabia's plans to increase its production in the future, which would indicate a lower equilibrium than that of the Economist, which assumes a static world.
They have a calculator that allows you to see which countries can produce profitably at a given price. Here's the link: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/01/daily-chart-6?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/dc/st/adjustingthetapsonoilprice
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