According to Vessels Value of the UK, Iran has 25 VLCCs with 56 million barrels. (This is at the high end of various estimates.) This is under one day's world consumption. It is important on the margin, but not decisive.
The important thing is how fast will the high cost producers (Canadian oil sands and US shale oil, which together produce about 6.5 million barrels/day) reduce their production. Canada is losing $15/barrel in marginal cash cost at $30/barrel WTI. (WCS, the Canadian benchmark, gets a $15 discount to WTI and costs just under $30/barrel to produce.) If these prices persist their 2.5 mn BPD will go quickly.
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