Saturday, January 2, 2016

Looking forward to 2016: An optimistic prediction

The Boston Globe had an interesting factoid on December 31. The rise in heroin use, addiction, and death has been of growing concern here in Massachusetts. In 2014, we had 1256 deaths from heroin overdoses. (By comparison, we usually have about 300 automobile-related and 250 gun-related fatalities each year, including suicides and accidents.) 80% of the opiate dead were men, with an average age of 36. The death toll was an increase of 88% over 2013. The numbers are not in for 2015, but in Norfolk County around but not in Boston the increase was 60% over 2014, and this is probably representative. Meanwhile, auto and gun deaths are trending down.

As it commonplace to make optimistic predictions about the new year, I shall do so: I predict that the number of deaths from heroin in Massachusetts will increase less in 2016 over the previous year than was the case in 2014.

Still, it is very troubling, and I shall make an additional prediction: By January 2018, public opinion will be far more concerned about the risk of death from drugs or the actions of drugged persons than from autos or guns.


Happy New Year.







Lincoln

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