Saturday, January 30, 2016

4th quarter US GDP bodes ill for the future

GDP grew at 0.7% (annual rate) in the 4th quarter.  This is a weak result, albeit positive, and the balance of the sources of growth are unhealthy:

Personal consumption expenditures: +1.46%.
Gross private domestic investment:   -0.41%
Net exports of goods and services:    -0.47%
Government:                                      +0.12%
                                                           +0.70%

The biggest negative was net exports, and this is despite the positive effects of low oil prices in the balance.  The strong dollar is hollowing up US manufacturing; it is like the great sucking sound of famously heard  by Ross Perot.  The decline in investment also bodes ill for the future.

Consumption and government spending increasing are not sustainable sources of growth in the absence of the others.

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